Every morning before the bell, Market Prism runs the same systematic analysis a quant desk runs manually — across every ticker in the coverage universe. Here's how each layer works.
Patent Pending: US 63/971,470 & 63/971,478Every market narrative follows a lifecycle: birth, growth, maturity, decay. Layer 1 classifies where each story sits in this arc using natural language analysis, attention velocity, and repetition entropy. A story that's been retold 40 times in 72 hours is structurally different from a fresh insight — even if the headline reads the same.
Stories don't die linearly — they decay like radioactive isotopes. Layer 2 calculates the narrative half-life for each active story, measuring how quickly attention and conviction are dissipating. A story with a 12-day half-life that's 30 days old is structurally exhausted, regardless of how many analysts are still citing it.
Management teams tell stories in their MD&A sections — and reveal reality in their tables. Layer 3 measures the divergence between narrative claims and quantitative disclosures within SEC filings. High divergence is a leading indicator of earnings surprises, restatements, and narrative traps.
When multiple independent sources converge on the same thesis within a narrow window, it looks like confirmation but often signals fragility. Layer 4 detects coordinated narrative clusters — when analysts, media, and social channels align too perfectly, creating a single point of failure for the prevailing story.
Not all analyst calls are created equal. Layer 5 maintains a Bayesian reliability model for every source in our coverage universe, updating conviction weights based on historical accuracy, sector expertise, and timing precision. A bullish call from a source with 73% hit rate on semiconductors carries different weight than one from a generalist with 41%.
Layer 6 compares where price is against where the narrative says it should be. Using a multi-factor model that combines fundamental anchors (P/E, FCF yield, growth rate) with narrative energy, it identifies tickers where the gap between story and reality has become structurally unsustainable.
Stories don't stay contained. Layer 7 maps how narrative shocks propagate through supply chains, sector peers, and thematic clusters. When NVDA's China export story shifts, Layer 7 traces the impact upstream (TSM, AMAT, ASML) and downstream (SMCI, data center REITs) — before the market prices it in.
All seven layers converge into one of three actionable verdicts — not a score, not a probability, but a clear structural assessment.